Iceberg Model: Popular Tool of Systems Thinking

Kshitij Goel
4 min readMay 27, 2021

If you have come across the term ‘Systems thinking’ and are wondering what it could mean, let me give you an idea. Systems thinking, in the simplest of terms, helps in looking at the bigger picture and understanding how the different parts of a particular system can influence each other. The entire process aims at defining a problem, forming a hypothesis based on that problem and then, building a model to eliminate the problem.

Systems thinking consists of a variety of tools to achieve a solution under different scenarios. And the most popular one amongst these tools is the ‘Iceberg Model’. What this model tries to illustrate are:

  • The various levels of how one can deal with a situation by evaluating observable events
  • Detecting the underlying patterns that could be the very base of how a situation was generated
  • Identifying a structure that supports the underlying motive
  • Ultimately, aiding an organisation to shape the mental models which they should be following to handle a situation

Thus, one can comment that the Iceberg Model helps individuals and organisations to expand their perception of a situation. Here they are not only limited to look at just a single activity or event but rather are urged to look at the situation in the context of the whole system. In short, the model is used to identify the underlying structures that generate perceived events and issues.

Iceberg Model (Source)

Wondering why this particular model is called ‘Iceberg’? We have the answer for you. You may be aware about how an actual iceberg exists as per global researchers. It is widely known that only 10 percent of the iceberg is seen above the water while a massive 90 percent of it lies under the water. This very fact is the base of the Iceberg model. The expression ‘tip of the iceberg’ is used to explain that what we see on the fore is a minor part of the whole situation. A major portion of it lies below the surface. Thus, just like an iceberg, a large percentage of what is actually taking place around the world is hidden from us. The Iceberg Model tries to make this hidden portion explicit by depicting it in a series of layers that sit beneath the everyday commonly observed phenomena.

The Iceberg Model can be segregated into four basic levels and here we will take a look at all of them to understand how the whole thing works.

EVENTS

Broadly, events can be described as ‘what happened’ or ‘what we saw’. They are basically the markers in time where variables are observed. Events signify the tip of the iceberg that is above the water. Majority of the world spends its time at this level, that is, perceiving the world at the event stage while being occupied with daily life activities. A simple example of an event within the Iceberg model can be global news like a new President being elected in the USA or the price of gold increasing worldwide. The general public is just aware of this event.

PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR

Broadly speaking, patterns majorly answer queries such as ‘what’s been happening’ or ‘what’s changing’. Over time the changes that occur in variables and trends are known as patterns. In the sense of an iceberg, if we see just below the waterline, we get to see the pattern and recurrence of events. For example, if a person makes a statement like the price of gas is shooting up or summers are getting hotter, then they are observing the patterns. At this level, we get the chance to anticipate, plan and forecast which helps us to react effectively and adapt to the problems.

STRUCTURE

Structure can be defined as the rules of the game which creates, supports and influences the patterns we see within an event. They can be either visible or invisible, either written or unwritten and primarily helps in explaining the patterns. Structures can range from policies, distribution of resources, norms, guidelines, rules or informal ways of work that have been tactfully established. For example, if a farmer is looking to increase the amount of milk he produces, he must increase the number of cows. Both these situations are the different patterns and the one interlinking them is the structure. A cause-and-effect relationship is what a structure is composed of.

MENTAL MODELS

Mental models can be defined as the thinking that creates structures which then manifest themselves into patterns of event. It is basically what generates the structure, patterns and events within the Iceberg model. People’s behaviour is driven by beliefs or deeply held assumptions and this is what creates the base of mental models. A mixture of beliefs, morals, values, expectations, culture or attitudes constitute a mental model which eventually allows structure to continue their functioning. They are the reason behind what structures are doing.

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Kshitij Goel

Lead Consultant: Product Vision, Roadmap and Delivery